PREPARATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA TO REPEL AGGRESSION

1. THE PREPARATION OF THE ARMED FORCES OF THE RA TO REPEL AGGRESSION

1. 1.1. Mobilization and combat training of the Armed Forces
2. 1.2. The Armed Forces logistic support preparation
3. 1.3. Preparation of the territory of the RA as a theater of military operations
4. 1.4. Strategic intelligence

2. PREPARING THE ECONOMY OF THE RA TO RESIST AGGRESSION

1. 2.1. Organization of measures to ensure the stability of the functioning of the economy
2. 2.2. State policy in the field of increasing the stability of the economy functioning

3. PREPARATION OF THE POPULATION OF THE RA TO RESIST AGGRESSION

1. 3.1. The preparation of the population in moral and psychological terms
2. 3.2. Preparation of the population in terms of civil defence
3. 3.3. Military training of the population

1. 
   1.4. Strategic intelligence
   
   Strategic intelligence, organized by the armed forces in peacetime, is also one of the important branches of preparation for war, not only for the armed forces, but also for the country as a whole. Strategic intelligence allows prepare for war in more rational way, taking into account the plans and capabilities of a potential enemy, to gain some time for preparatory measures before an enemy attack, and also allows to make informed decisions when conducting operations at the beginning of hostilities. That is, strategic intelligence is an intelligence activity in order to obtain information about the strategic capabilities and strategic intentions of researched state. This is the highest form of intelligence activity, the effectiveness of which depends on the viability of the state or organization carrying it out.¹
   
   Military strategic intelligence is an important component of entire intelligence service of the state. It interacts with political and economic intelligence, and studies not only narrow military, but also military-political and military-economic issues.
   
   As a rule, both in peacetime and wartime military strategic intelligence systematically identifies, collects, studies and evaluates data on military-political and mobilization activities of states; the military-strategic and military-economic situation in the state – a likely enemy in theaters of war and theaters of military operations; assesses its politics; studies the military art of a likely enemy and its views on the nature and methods of warfare; the state and prospects for the development of military equipment and weapons, the composition, location of groups of troops, capabilities of the armed forces as a whole; probable intentions and plans for warfare and strategic operations, as well as theater equipment; the study of the moral and psychological state of the army and the population.²
   
   Taking into account the variety of types used in the field of strategic intelligence globally, in our opinion, it is reasonable for RA to develop strategic intelligence in the following main areas:
   • Human intelligence (HUMINT);
   • Diplomatic intelligence (legal foreign intelligence apparatus - military attaches);
   • National foreign intelligence;
   • Electronic intelligence;
   • Aerial reconnaissance;
   • Open source intelligence;
   • Non-state strategic intelligence
   
   HUMINT is a set of actions of special state bodies or military apparatus in order to obtain secret materials and information about other countries and their armed forces. It is conducted illegally both in peacetime and in wartime to obtain the necessary information about the enemy by special means and methods.³ HUMINT specializes in working with agents. In turn, it is divided into strategic agent intelligence (SAR) and operational agent intelligence (OAR).⁴
   
   The National Foreign Intelligence Service is a set of state-created bodies that is an integral part of the state security forces and is designed to protect the security of individuals, society and the state from external threats using methods and means defined by legislation. Its bodies carry out intelligence activities by: obtaining and processing information about real and potential opportunities, actions, plans and intentions of foreign states, organizations and individuals affecting vital interests of the state. They assist to implement measures carried out by the state in the interests of ensuring its security.⁵
   
   Diplomatic intelligence (legal foreign intelligence apparatus, military attaches)⁶ is an intelligence activity carried out by diplomatic agencies in the interests of their state.
   
   The military attache carries out intelligence activities in the interests of the military establishment and focuses on the exploration of the military potential of the host state. The main functions of military attaches are as follows:
   1. protection of national security and defence interests;
   2. representation of the military leadership of their country and the implementation of its communication with the military command of the host state;
   3. ensuring the functioning of the structures necessary for the implementation of security and defence policy;
   4. perform the functions of a defence and security adviser for the country's ambassador and the entire diplomatic staff of the embass;
   5. monitor and report this to their leadership the situation that is developing in the host country in aspects related to security and defence;
   6. monitor and manage activities in the field of armed preparations, military diplomacy and security cooperation, both in bilateral and multilateral agreements;
   7. to promote the products of the national defence industry to the international market;
   8. contribute to increased capacity to respond to a crisis situation and, if it arises, to resolve the conflict.⁷
   
   Electronic intelligence (EI) is gathering intelligence through reception and analysis of electromagnetic emission (EMR). Electronic intelligence uses both intercepted signals from communication channels between people and technical means, as well as signals from radars, electronic warfare stations and similar devices.⁸ Strategic electronic intelligence is conducted in the interests of government agencies and the supreme military leadership in order to obtain comprehensive information about the country surveyed through its electronic means.
   
   Aerial reconnaissance is one of the types of strategic intelligence conducted from the air, from aircraft. Aerial reconnaissance is carried out by units of reconnaissance aircraft, as well as UAVs, in order to provide the military leadership with the necessary intelligence about strategic enemy objects located in its deep rear, as well as in order to obtain data about the enemy (objects, forces and means, terrain, and so on) necessary for the successful conduct of military operations by all types of troops (forces) of the armed forces, individual branches of the armed forces and special forces.⁹
   
   Open sources intelligence (OSINT) is an intelligence branch that includes the search, selection and collection of intelligence information from publicly available sources, as well as open information analysis.¹⁰ In the intelligence community, the term "open source of intelligence data", which indicates the public availability of the source (as opposed to secret and restricted sources). It includes:
   • Media (printed, radio, TV);
   • Internet (web communities and user-generated content — social networks, video hosting, blogs, forums), public reports of governments, official data on budgets, demographics, materials of press conferences, various public statements;
   • Observation (radio monitoring, the use of publicly available remote sensor data and aerial photographs (for example, Google Earth));
   • Professional and academic reports, conferences, reports, articles.¹¹
   
   A non-governmental strategic intelligence or private intelligence agency is a private (non-governmental) or quasi-non-governmental organization of the private sector engaged in the collection, analysis and use of information through the evaluation of open sources (OSINT) and cooperation with other institutions. Some private intelligence agencies obtain information fraudulently or through actions using their clients as a cover.^{12, 13, 14}
   
   Private agencies provide their services to governments as well as to private consumers, as well as sell their services to regions (for example, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific region, etc.). Some private intelligence agencies use online perception management, social media influence/manipulation campaigns, strategic disinformation (e.g. fake news production/propaganda production), opposition research, and political campaigns using social media and artificial intelligence, such as Psy-Group, Cambridge Analytica и Black Cube.¹⁵
   
   In addition to the above mentioned types of strategic intelligence, there are others, such as economic (business) intelligence, industrial intelligence, financial intelligence, technical intelligence, etc.

Conclusion

Thus, the strategic intelligence of the Republic of Armenia should:

1. to provide the Government and the National Assembly with the intelligence information they need to make decisions in the political, economic, military-strategic, scientific-technical and environmental fields;
2. to provide conditions favourable for successful implementation of the security policy of the Republic of Armenia;
3. to promote economic development, scientific and technological progress of the country and military-technical security of the Republic of Armenia.

Continuation: 2. PREPARING THE ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA TO RESIST AGGRESSION

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Published: 24/11/22